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November 5, 2020 6:15pm

Election 2020: GLI’s Preliminary Analysis

While the battle for the White House remains too close to call, the major election stories in Greater Louisville at the local, state, and federal levels have largely reached clear conclusions. 

  • All Congressional incumbents from Greater Louisville with elections in 2020 held their seats, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. 
  • Republicans in Kentucky expanded their supermajorities in the General Assembly and exceeded expectations in Jefferson County’s suburbs. 
  • Republicans continue to hold supermajorities in the Indiana General Assembly, while Republican Governor Eric Holcomb won a second term.
  • Democrats on Louisville Metro Council maintained their supermajority and will welcome two new members.

As results continue coming in and become finalized, we will update this post with additional analysis. All results in this post are as of November 5, 2020, and come from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and Indiana Elections Division.

Congress

Across the Greater Louisville region, all four Congressional incumbents from Greater Louisville with elections in 2020 held their seats, likely by sizable margins.

  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) defeated Amy McGrath (D), 58.2 to 37.7. 
  • Rep. John Yarmuth (D) from Jefferson County defeated Rhonda Palazzo (D), 62.2 to 37.7.
  • Rep. Brett Guthrie (R), whose district covers parts of Greater Louisville such as Hardin, Bullit, and Nelson counties, defeated Hank Linderman (D), 71.2 to 25.9.
  • Rep. Thomas Massie (R), whose district includes Oldham County, defeated Alexandra Owensby (D), 67.3 to 32.6. 
  • Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R), whose district covers Southern Indiana, defeated Andy Ruff (D), leading 60.9 to 34.7 at the time of writing.  

The Kentucky General Assembly

Throughout the Commonwealth, Republicans appear to have expanded their supermajority in the House from 62 seats to between 70 and 75 seats, pending final results. In the Senate, Republicans picked up two seats, giving them a 30 to 8 supermajority. In the House and Senate, Republicans picked up several seats in rural parts of the state but also defended and gained seats in suburban areas as well.

Supermajorities are not just “really big majorities” but they are also necessary for passing certain types of legislation, such as, for example, constitutional amendments.   

The ten Kentucky counties of Greater Louisville – Jefferson, Bullitt, Oldham, Shelby, Trimble, Henry Spencer Nelson, Hardin, and Meade – largely followed the statewide trend. The partisan breakdown of the Louisville Metropolitan Caucus, which includes the lawmakers who represent these counties, stood at 22D to 16R heading into the election. That breakdown appears to have shifted to 20D to 18R with Republican pickups in Eastern Jefferson/Oldham County (District 48) and in District 10 which includes a part of Hardin County. 

Indiana 

Results in Indiana are still being processed, but Republican Governor Eric Holcomb appears to have won a second term by a comfortable margin over Democrat Woody Myers.  Republican Todd Rokita defeated Democrat Jonathan Weinzapfel in the race for Attorney General, replacing incumbent Republican Curtis Hill. Republicans are likely to retain their supermajorities in both chambers of the Indiana General Assembly. Hoosier Republicans entered the election 71 to 29 in the House and 40 to 10 in the Senate. Eight legislative districts cover the Greater Louisville counties of Floyd, Clark, Harrison, Scott, and Washington in Southern Indiana. The partisan breakdown of the lawmakers representing those districts appears to have shifted 6R-2D to 7R-1D, with the defeat of incumbent Terry Goodin (D) by Zach Payne (R).

Louisville Metro Council

Half of Metro Council’s seats were up for election in 2020 but no changes to the partisan breakdown of the body seem to have occurred. Democrats retain 19 of 26 seats. The Council will see two newcomers take office, however:

  • In District 4, Jecorey Arthur (D) replaces Barbara Sexton-Smith (D), who is retiring from Council.
  • In District 8, Cassie Chambers Armstrong (D) replaces Brandon Coan (D), who is also retiring from Council. 

In addition, because District 25 Councilman David Yates (D) won election to the Kentucky State Senate, Council is expected to appoint a new member to serve the remainder of Yates’ term.